The coal phase-out and the labour market transition pathways: the case of Poland
Abstract We study the labour market transition pathways driven by the coal phase-out in Poland between 1990 and 2050. First, we apply the concept of branching points to describe the transformation of coal mining in the context of three labour market trends: structural changes, demographically driven changes in the labour supply, and educational upgrading. We […]
Recent technology cost forecasts underestimate the pace of technological change
A comparison of observed global energy technology costs, with forecasts generated by models and forecasts predicted by human experts, showed that both forecasting methods underestimated cost reductions. This suggests that decisions based on forecasts may be overestimating the cost of climate mitigation and points to the need to further improve forecasting methods. A team of […]
Heterogeneous transition expectations and capital investment choice
Abstract The aim of this article is to study how heterogeneous expectations concerning the low-carbon technological transition affect aggregate capital investment choices in the electricity sector. We develop a simple model where firms choose between two technological options by evaluating their future profitability prospects, within a finite planning horizon. Profit expectations are affected by beliefs […]
CMCC-RFF Policy Session: Policies to promote a Just Transitions – lessons from the EU and the US
Abstract CMCC and RFF jointly organized a session entitled “Policies to support workers and communities in the transition to clean energy economies in the US and the EU” during the last EAERE Conference (EAERE 2020, virtual). At the session, participants laid the basis for cooperative work around the topics of how to promote an equitable […]
Net Zero Emission Pathways Reduce the Physical and Economic Risks of Change
Abstract Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets entail varying degrees of temperature overshoot. The intertemporal consequences of overshoot have been typically evaluated from the point of view of mitigation. Here, we provide the first assessment of the benefits of limiting overshoot via an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We compute physical and macroeconomic probabilistic indicators […]
Assessing feasibility concerns in climate mitigation scenarios
What drives the feasibility of climate scenarios commonly reviewed by organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? And can they actually be extrapolated to the real world? A new systematic framework can help understand what to improve in the next generation of scenarios and explore how to make ambitious emission reductions possible by […]
IPCC WGIII eLAM4 Outreach Event: Climate change and our future. Driving the transition
Before the release of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report cycle (AR6), an eagerly awaited report of the last six years and in the most important year for renewing climate ambition, a public event will be held on April 28, 2021, 3-5 pm Europe time. The event will discuss how to drive the future of the climate transition, […]
Climate Neutrality Forum
Bringing together leading researchers, policymakers and practitioners working on achieving climate neutrality, the meeting will take place simultaneously at three hubs – Berlin, Milan and Oxford – linked together to create a blended event that is both in-person and virtual in nature. Delegates will be drawn from academic, policy, civil society and business communities. […]
Low-carbon policies can be ‘balanced’ to benefit small firms and average households
A review of ten types of policy used to reduce carbon suggests that some costs fall on those less able to bear them – but it also shows these policies can form the bedrock of a ‘green recovery’ if specifically designed and used in tandem. Some of the low-carbon policy options currently used by governments […]
