Abstract

What induces clean energy transitions? When transitional dynamics exhibit strong path dependence, a temporary shock to input composition can trigger permanent structural change. I examine whether such dynamics characterize the U.S. electricity sector’s use of coal – the most climate-damaging fuel – across the 20th century. Exploiting local coal supply shocks driven by changing regional accessibility of subsurface coal, I find increasing imbalance in the coal composition of electricity capital lasting ten decades following a shock. A structural change model enables recovery of a key substitution parameter from reduced-form estimates and explores conditions for triggering sustained future clean energy transitions.

Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions
Speaker: Kyle Meng, UC Santa Barbara